Trump Media shares face potential sell-off as insider selling restrictions lift

By Medha Singh and Noel Randewich

(Reuters) - While former U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will not sell his $1.7 billion stake in Trump Media after restrictions likely expire on Thursday, other insiders could soon cash in their gains.

Trump Media & Technology Group is 57% owned by the Republican presidential candidate who told reporters last Friday that he does not plan to sell his shares.

Other major stakeholders who could soon sell their shares include United Atlantic Ventures and Patrick Orlando, whose fund, ARC Global Investments II, sponsored the blank-check company that merged with Trump Media in March. The two own a combined 11% of Trump Media, according to a company filing.

"Even if Trump doesn't, it would be interesting if other insiders begin selling because that would be a clue as to what they think his mindset is about selling," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Trump Media insiders could sell their shares as early as after the bell on Thursday if the stock ends the regular trading session at or above $12, according to a provision in the company's prospectus.

Shares were last down 4% at $15, extending sharp losses in recent weeks fueled by worries about the end of so-called lock-up period related to its stock market debut in March.

Trump and other insiders, including Chief Operating Officer Andrew Northwall, Chief Technology Officer Vladimir Novachki and director Donald Trump Jr., did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on their plans after the lock-up expires.

Trump Media did not respond to a request for a comment.

The size of ARC's stake in Trump Media is in dispute. A Delaware judge this week ruled ARC Global should receive 8.19 million shares of Trump Media, more than the roughly 7 million shares that the company has said that ARC was entitled to. 

Separately, Truth Social cofounders Andy Litinsky and Wes Moss have also sued TMTG for damages for preventing them from selling their stock sooner.

Orlando and Moss did not immediately reply to requests for comment, while Litinsky could not be reached for a comment.

Newly listed companies often see pressure on their stocks ahead of the end of their lock-up period, when insiders become free to sell their often considerable stakes.

Trump Media, which operates the Truth Social app, saw its value balloon to nearly $10 billion following its Wall Street debut, lifted by retail traders and traders who see it as a speculative bet on his chances of securing a second four-year term as president. 

However, after reaching that peak, Trump Media shares have lost most of their value, with declines accelerating in recent weeks after President Joe Biden gave up his reelection bid on July 21, and Trump lost a lead in opinion polls ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election to Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. Betting markets now show Harris with a modest advantage over Trump in a tight race.

Trump Media's revenue is equivalent to two Starbucks coffee shops, and strategists say its $3 billion stock market value is detached from its day-to-day business. 

Its stock is trading at the equivalent of over 1,000 times its revenue, far exceeding the valuation of even AI superstar Nvidia, which recently traded at 24 times its revenue.

"The market couldn't absorb even a partial stake sale without some material damage to the stock," Sosnick said.

"Ultimately a lot will hinge on whether (Trump) keeps his word on not selling while the longer term prospects of the company are completely dependent upon his electoral prospects."

Insiders Stake as % of outstanding

TMTG shares

Donald Trump 56.6%

United Atlantic 5.5%

Ventures llc

ARC Global 5.5%

Investments

Phillip Juhan 0.2%

Devin Nunes 0.06%

Scott Glabe  0.01%

(Reporting by Noel Randewich and Medha Singh; Additional reporting by Lance Tupper and Tom Hals; Editing by Megan Davies and Diane Craft)