Big US banks say consumers are still strong, despite economy fears

By Michelle Price, Nupur Anand

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. consumers remain resilient with solid spending in the third quarter, two of the country's biggest lenders said on Friday, although there are signs higher inflation has stretched some Americans on lower incomes. 

Strong earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and upbeat comments from their top executives should further ease investor worries that elevated borrowing costs were weighing on consumers and pushing the economy to the cusp of a downturn, even as JPMorgan hiked provisions for soured loans.

JPMorgan's shares were up nearly 5% in afternoon trading, while Wells Fargo's were up more than 6%.

"Overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid," said Jeremy Barnum, chief financial officer of JPMorgan, the country's largest lender and a bellwether for the U.S. economy, adding spending had normalized from a post-pandemic bounce when Americans splurged on travel and eating out.

Weakening job market data had sparked concerns that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation may tip the United States into a recession or "hard landing." 

But speaking to analysts, Barnum said spending patterns were "consistent with the narrative that consumers are on solid footing and consistent with a strong labor market and the current central case of a kind of 'no-landing' scenario economically." 

Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Michael Santomassimo told reporters that spending on credit and debit cards, while down a little from earlier this year, was still "quite solid." 

The bank reported debit card purchase volumes and transactions were up nearly 2% year-on-year, while credit card point-of-sale volumes were up 10%. At JPMorgan, year-on-year debit and credit card sales volumes were up 6%.

The market will get a fuller picture when Bank of America and Citigroup, the country's other two major consumer banks, report next week and retail sales data is released. Several investors said Friday's earnings were so far a positive sign. 

"The read on the consumer from JPM and Wells is very healthy in my opinion. It seems like there's more of a normalization in consumer spend than a decrease in spend, and that's healthy for the broad economy," said Dave Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors, which owns several bank stocks.

Still, Santomassimo warned that the cumulative impact of higher inflation was stretching lower-income consumers and the bank was watching to see if that pattern spread to higher-income customers.  

Consumer sentiment also slipped in October amid lingering frustration over high prices, a University of Michigan survey showed on Friday.

"When you look at the overall average, it looks good, but I think it's being skewed more by the higher-income, higher-net-worth consumer," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.

"For those around the lower end, it's been a little bit tougher. We're seeing delinquencies and car loans pick up. We're seeing smaller deposits, more credit card balances," he added. 

Both banks set aside cash to cover potential soured loans. JPMorgan set aside $3.11 billion, a jump on the $1.38 billion it put aside a year ago, predominantly driven by potential credit card loan losses. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, set aside $1.07 billion, down slightly from the $1.2 billion it provisioned this time last year, although it noted it had increased its allowance for credit card loans as balances had risen.

More than decade-high credit card delinquencies had also stoked fears earlier this year that Americans were becoming overstretched, but that picture improved in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said on Wednesday. 

Impaired borrowing between one month and longer horizons marked its biggest retreat in three years, although it would be premature to declare a turning point for credit performance, the Philadelphia Fed said. 

In a note on Thursday, analysts at Barclays said they expected to see "continued normalization of credit card loan losses, but at a slower pace than in previous months."

(Writing by Michelle Price; reporting by Niket Nishant, Manya Saini, Nupur Anand, Nivedita Balu, Saqib Ahmed, Saeed Azhar and Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis)