Bank of Canada to cut rates by 50 bps on Oct. 23; next move unclear: Reuters poll

By Mumal Rathore and Indradip Ghosh

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points on Oct. 23 as price pressures ease, according to two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters who however failed to reach a consensus on where rates would be two months from now.

Headline inflation declined more than expected to 1.6% last month. Along with further signs of a slowing economy, financial market traders and most economists are convinced the BoC, which has already trimmed rates by a cumulative 75 basis points since early June, will go for a bigger 50 basis point cut next week. 

Governor Tiff Macklem said last month the Bank wants to keep inflation close to the center of the 1%–3% range and economic growth could weaken, raising expectations for faster reductions toward the neutral rate which neither restrains nor stimulates the economy.

But persistently high shelter costs, sticky core inflation and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate last month suggest it still could be a close call.

Two-thirds of economists, 19 of 29, in a Oct. 15-17 Reuters poll forecast the Bank would cut rates by one half-percentage point to 3.75%. One expected a 50 basis point cut in an August survey.

"There has been a lot of baseless on-and-off speculation around the BoC's next move but it needed data to justify a call. We now have that. The BoC is likely to cut 50 bps next Wednesday...I'll also argue while it's our call, we disagree with upsizing," said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

"There is still the risk the BoC - which has surprised markets many times in the past - could opt for 25 bps...the Bank is at significant risk of unleashing inflationary forces."

Four of the big five Canadian banks predicted a half-point cut, with only TD expecting a quarter-point reduction.

If realised, that would match a 50 bps Federal Reserve rate cut last month. But the U.S. central bank is now widely expected to move in 25 basis point increments as the economy remains resilient. 

The prospect of a bigger rate cut has led to a roughly 2% decline in the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart since the start of the month.

One-third of economists, 10, expected a 25 basis point cut next week.

"Core inflation measures have largely evolved in line with the BoC's projections for Q3, and the 2.3%/2.4% reading for CPI-median/trim will make it easier to look through September's headline surprise if the Bank wants to continue at a 25 bps per meeting pace," said Robert Both, Canadian macro strategist at TD Securities. 

"Still, the risk of a 50 bp cut has risen with inflation falling further below the 2.0% target, and next week's BoC decision is looking increasingly like a coin toss."

There was no clear consensus what the central bank will do at the following meeting in December, the last of the year.

While 10 of 29 economists expected the policy rate at 3.50% by year-end, nine predicted it to be 3.75% and another nine expected 3.25%. Only one said it would be 4.00%.

Meanwhile, inflation was forecast to rise slightly over the coming quarters and remain around 2% until 2026, the poll found.

The BoC will cut rates by 100 basis points next year, shallower than this year, poll medians showed.

The economy likely grew 1.2% on an annualized basis last quarter, compared to 2.8% predicted by the BoC in July projections. It was expected to average 1.1% this year before bouncing back to 1.8% in 2025. The central bank will release updated economic forecasts next week too.

(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)

(Reporting by Mumal Rathore and Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan; Editing by Ross Finley, Kirsten Donovan)