Delicacy over the matter is understandable. A recent surge in anti-Syrian violence in Turkey has highlighted the fragility of efforts to restore diplomatic ties with Syria, which were severed at the onset of the Syrian civil war.
That conflict affected Turkey in a number of ways. Ankara sided with opposition forces in Syria and eventually intervened militarily, occupying parts of the country’s north. Meanwhile, fighting led to an influx of millions of refugees into Turkey, provoking anti-Syrian sentiment and, more recently, violence.
On June 30, 2024, Syrian-owned properties, vehicles and businesses in the central Turkish city of Kayseri were vandalized and set on fire following allegations of sexual abuse against a Syrian man. Fueled by social media, attacks soon spread and sparked the most violent anti-Syrian riots to date in Turkish areas with large Syrian refugee populations.
It also prompted or inflamed violence in opposition-held northwest Syria against Turkish military positions. The region was already on edge following comments from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that signaled his desire to restore relations with the Syrian government – something that would have profound consequences for opposition-held areas.
Detente with Damascus?
Erdogan has recently called for a “new era with Syria” following years of antagonism between the Turkish leader and his Syrian counterpart.
Since popular uprisings escalated into a full-blown civil war in 2012, Erdogan has viewed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as responsible for persecuting and displacing Syrians, making negotiations between the neighboring countries difficult.
But now Erdogan has suggested he is willing to meet with Assad. His hope is that a return to normalized relations would help facilitate the return of 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and address the shared concern of a potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
As a political scientist focusing on security in the Middle East, I can see how a diplomatic breakthrough could benefit both leaders. For Erdogan, it would alleviate tensions over Syrian refugees; for Assad it represents a further sign that his regional isolation has come to an end. But elsewhere, it complicates the already complex and volatile nature of Turkey’s engagement in Syria, notably regarding its relationship with Syrian refugees and opposition groups in northwest Syria.
Anti-Syrian riots and social media
The outburst of anti-Syrian violence in Turkey came just days after Erdogan first signaled the possibility of meeting with Assad. The Turkish president accused opposition parties of stoking racism and fueling tensions. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya pointed to online campaigns stirring up violence, noting that 38% of the “provocative and negative” posts on the evening of the rioting was produced by bot accounts.
Delicacy over the matter is understandable. A recent surge in anti-Syrian violence in Turkey has highlighted the fragility of efforts to restore diplomatic ties with Syria, which were severed at the onset of the Syrian civil war.
That conflict affected Turkey in a number of ways. Ankara sided with opposition forces in Syria and eventually intervened militarily, occupying parts of the country’s north. Meanwhile, fighting led to an influx of millions of refugees into Turkey, provoking anti-Syrian sentiment and, more recently, violence.
On June 30, 2024, Syrian-owned properties, vehicles and businesses in the central Turkish city of Kayseri were vandalized and set on fire following allegations of sexual abuse against a Syrian man. Fueled by social media, attacks soon spread and sparked the most violent anti-Syrian riots to date in Turkish areas with large Syrian refugee populations.
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