Abortion rights victories show this issue is unlikely to fade in 2024 elections − 3 things to know

1. Votes amending state constitutions are key to protecting abortion rights

Ohio voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and in 2020. In recent years, it has been considered a toss-up state that is turning “red.”

In the days leading up to the 2023 election, some conservative commentators observed that “anti-abortion groups are banking on Ohio to end the movement’s run of state-level losses and create a blueprint for battles in 2024 and beyond.”

Instead, most Democratic and independent voters, and some Republican voters, cast their ballots in favor of Issue 1, rejecting Ohio’s law that bans abortion after six weeks.

This followed on the heels of a recent high-profile case in which a 10-year-old Ohio girl had to travel to Indiana to have an abortion after she was raped and could not have the procedure in Ohio. Notably, physicians vocally opposed Ohio’s restrictive laws.

This new constitutional amendment means that Ohio’s 2019 law that prohibited abortion as soon as fetal cardiac activity could be detected – as early as six weeks into pregnancy – will not be allowed to take effect. A lower state court stopped enforcement of the six-week ban, but the case was making its way to the Ohio Supreme Court, whose seven members are mostly Republicans that have publicly opposed abortion rights.

Now, the Republican-controlled Ohio legislature does not have the power to amend or stop the new constitutional amendment or to enforce the six-week ban.

Lawmakers may still campaign to repeal Issue 1, but this change would require voters to first approve a different ballot initiative.

While state constitutions are amended much more frequently than the U.S. Constitution, a majority of voters in Ohio showed they support abortion rights, so another ballot measure seems unlikely.

2. Reframing abortion restrictions does not fool voters

In Virginia, Democratic candidates campaigned on preserving abortion rights, while Republican candidates charged Democrats with being obsessed with abortion.

Some Republican candidates also denied that they supported an abortion ban. Instead, they attempted to describe Youngkin’s proposed 15-week ban as “legislation that reflects compassionate common sense.”

The election results suggest that a majority of Virginia voters effectively rejected this proposed ban on abortion after 15 weeks.

Instead, they elected Democratic candidates who pledged to protect abortion rights in the one Southern state that had not enacted new restrictive abortion laws since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

With Democrats controlling both legislative chambers in Virginia, new bills will stall, and the legislative majority can counter other restrictive measures that are proposed.

3. Abortion rights matter up and down the ballot

Beshear placed abortion at the center of his campaign for governor in Kentucky, even though the state has a near-total ban on all abortions and does not have any exceptions for cases of incest or rape.

His win, as well as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court election that resulted in one more Democrat joining the court and creating a majority, suggests that highlighting abortion rights in election campaigns can be an effective way to draw in voters.

While Kentucky voters said the economy is a top issue for them, they have also said abortion and other basic rights are important, too.

Beshear’s campaign ran an unusual advertisement featuring Hadley Duvall, a Kentucky resident who was raped by her stepfather at age 12. She became pregnant but later miscarried. Duvall, now 20 years old, appeared in the television advertisement and challenged Cameron’s support for Kentucky’s law, which allows an abortion only in order to save the life of a pregnant woman – while instructing doctors to try to save the fetus, too.

The ad resonated with voters, even in a state that now has no abortion clinics.

Beshear’s reelection shows that politicians can effectively push for laws that walk back from near-total abortion bans, such as making exceptions in cases of rape or incest. In 2022, Kentucky voters already rejected a state constitutional amendment that would have prevented recognizing a right to abortion in the state.

These different state elections point in one clear direction.

Abortion increasingly matters to voters. And most voters do not want laws severely restricting abortion and other kinds of reproductive health care.

The 2023 election outcomes also suggest that Democratic candidates can effectively use abortion as a campaign issue. This will be critical for the general elections in 2024.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Source: The Conversation